It usually moves in the opposite direction to the stock market
Over time Gold has proven to move in the opposite direction to stocks. When the economy is growing and revenue rises Gold is the most unproductive asset. For that very same reason, however, that also means gold doesn’t rely on consumer spending, new business investment or clever accountancy tricks for its value. Gold is simply a rare, precious asset that people across the world have used as a store of wealth and medium of exchange for more than 5,000 years.
Dow-Gold Ratio. The Dow-Gold ratio represents the most important ratio between the relative prices of financial assets and real assets. The Dow component represents the valuation of financial assets; the gold component – of real assets.
When leverage in the financial system increases significantly, so does this ratio. A very high ratio is interpreted as an imbalance between financial and real assets – financial assets are overvalued, while real assets are undervalued. It also implies that a correction eventually will be necessary – either through deflation, which implies deleveraging and a collapsing stock market, or through inflation, which implies stagnant stock market for many years and steadily rising prices of real assets. In the past the ratio has tended to bottom at between 1 and 2.
In 2008 those who owned some Gold as part of their investment portfolio may have slept better than those who were long stocks only. As the following summary shows
| Gold % Annual Change v Currencies | |||||||||
| Year | USD | AUD | CAD | CNY | EUR | INR | JPY | CHF | GBP |
| 2001 | 2.5 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 2.5 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 17.4 | 5 | 5.4 |
| 2002 | 24.7 | 13.5 | 23.7 | 24.8 | 5.9 | 24 | 13 | 3.9 | 12.7 |
| 2003 | 19.6 | -10.5 | -2.2 | 19.5 | -0.5 | 13.5 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 7.9 |
| 2004 | 5.2 | 1.4 | -2 | 5.2 | -2.1 | 0 | 0.9 | -3 | -2 |
| 2005 | 18.2 | 25.6 | 14.5 | 15.2 | 35.1 | 22.8 | 35.7 | 36.2 | 31.8 |
| 2006 | 22.8 | 14.4 | 22.8 | 18.8 | 10.2 | 20.5 | 24 | 13.9 | 7.8 |
| 2007 | 31.4 | 18.6 | 10.4 | 23 | 17.9 | 17.5 | 24.7 | 21.5 | 29.2 |
| 2008 | 5.8 | 32.5 | 32.4 | -1.1 | 11.9 | 30.4 | -14.9 | 0.2 | 44.3 |
| Average | 16.3 | 13.3 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 10.8 | 16.8 | 13.6 | 10.6 | 17.1 |
I don’t trust Governments
History is littered with failed experiments with paper (fiat) money. The average life span of all of these currencies is approximately 40 years, and since the USA abandoned the Bretton Woods de facto Gold Standard in 1971, this present episode could be close to its expiry date. The reason these experiments have failed is due to the fact that Governments cannot be trusted to spend within their means. And since expenditures exceed income they resort to excess borrowing and or printing/creating money – the new expression being quantitative easing.
The British Pound originally represented one troy pound of sterling silver back in 1560. Sterling silver is 92.5% pure silver and there are 12 troy ounces in a troy pound. Since its inception the British Pound has lost approximately 98.8% of its purchasing power.
On the link below is an article from Mike Shedlock giving a brief history of paper money and how it always ultimately fails
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/06/why-does-fiat-money-seemingly-work.html
